In contrast to future forecasting, and more traditional scenario-thinking, Speculative Design does not only focus on futures that are in line with expectations, but instead opts for possible alternative futures and thus has a broader range.
In the Imagine phase of the Speculative Design approach, the design scope or frame is translated to the distant future, 2050/2070, then translated back to the near future, 2030, and captured in a story that resembles a scenario in an episode of a series like 'Black Mirror,' but more positively. Equal attention is paid to the major developments (Macro-level), social changes and new behavior of people (Meso-level), and the products and services that are used (Micro-level). This results in a thriving fictional world. Equal attention must be paid to the Macro, Meso, and Micro levels: this is the only way to create a rich world that we can imagine.
To better understand and envision a preferable future of the HvA and knowledge institutions, the HvA2030 project team came up with different future scenarios of learning in 2030.
But first, let us formally introduce HvA2030 project’s future personas; Saya, Daan, Rashid, Lin and Gugu. A future persona is a fictional character who lives in the future based on a specific scenario.
Facilitator
Name: Daan
Age: 38
Background: Amsterdam-based facilitator; studied psychology. His job is to support learners in defining their learning goals and identifying their areas of interest during their educational journey and put them in contact with the real world. He loves feeling helpful and doing practical activities.
Traits: Facilitator, Empathetic, Thoughtful, Proactive, Uncertain, Engaged, Reserved
Learner
Name: Saya
Age: 19
Background: Saya is a HvA learner who is passionate about new digital technologies. Her main drive/motivation is to figure out how she can combine this passion with social innovation to be a change maker in 2030 and beyond.
Traits: Learner, Changemaker/Activist, innovative, Dutch, Empathetic, Techno-optimist, Reserved
Life-long learner:
Name: Rashid
Age: 67
Background: Rashid is a former professor and a PhD graduate in microbiology. He is a Pakistani-Dutch citizen who has been a lifelong learner since 2018, when he quit his job as a professor. The reason for quitting his job was the detachment he felt from society with the job he was doing. He decided to learn more about global happenings and talk about different challenges and multiple methods to solve them. He loves to collaborate with other learners of different age groups. He runs his own lifelong learner's community in Hoofddorp and is an active member of the lifelong learners committee (LLLCom) at the HvA.
Traits: Lifelong learner, Experienced, Curious, Interactive, Leader, Caring
Citizen
Name: Lin
Age: 35
Background: Lin is a Chinese born Dutch 35-year-old mother & daily activist in sustainability and social innovation. She believes that we can change our immediate surroundings, e.g., neighbourhood, daily activities, etc. However, she is also worried about the future of society and the world. Even though in 2030, important topics such as sustainability are dealt with in every aspect of organizations and regulations, she thinks that the conversations and practices around it still lack various branches of thought.
Traits: Open-minded, Community-driven, Daily Activist, Sustainability-Driven
Non-Human Persona
Name: Gugu
Background: Gugu is Saya’s AI (Artificial Intelligence) human companion developed by Fushi Inc., a company dedicated to creating personalized human companions.
Traits: Immersive, Adaptive, Altruist, Curious, Critical, Evolutionary
Now that you've met our future personas, take a look at HvA2030 project’s future scenarios in three different formats: audio narration, visual display, and story text.
The following scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but rather work-in-progress summaries of possible future worlds created by the HvA2030 project team during the Imagine phase of the Speculative Design Methodology.
FACILITATOR (Daan) & LEARNER (Saya) PERSONAS SCENARIO
The following are some of the key ingredients outlined in this scenario for 2030:
Blended Learning: This is an approach to education that combines online educational materials and opportunities for interaction online with traditional place-based classroom methods.
Applied Knowledge: Applied knowledge is distinguished from theoretical or abstract knowledge and implies practical use. This is used in various situations and contexts.
Physical Spaces: These are referred to as ‘hubs’ in the scenario.
City of Amsterdam as learning playground: Learning spaces around the city where they are integrated with technology, culture and community.
Life-long Learning: This is a form of voluntary, self-initiated education that is focused on personal development.
Areas of Interest: No more courses or traditional curricula but more individually tailored areas of interest or themes/topics.
The scenario is narrated through a recorded audio in Kelsey Trites’ voice (Digital Society School Trainee), which can be found in the video below:
LIFELONG LEARNER (Rashid) & CITIZEN (Lin) PERSONAS SCENARIO
Rashid is introduced in this scenario as a lifelong learner who quit his job in 2018 because he felt his work had no connection to the outside world and his knowledge outside his expertise was very limited. It also introduces Lin as a citizen concerned that her young child will undoubtedly suffer as a result of extreme weather, rising sea levels, and the immigration crisis. But she is hopeful that she can change small things around her, which is why she joins the "Everyday Sustainability" movement and organizes workshops at the HvA for kids, adults, and elderly people to learn how to make daily life a little more sustainable. Rashid and Lin keep meticulous diaries, which they record using their personalized human AIs.
Rashid learns of Lin's workshop at the HvA from the Lifelong Learners Committee (LLLC) meeting and is interested in collaborating with the event organizer and participants in the scenario. As a result, he visits the workshop and meets Lin. Their discussion includes their career paths, pain points, and thoughts on what they are doing, why they enjoy it, and why it is important.
The Scenario outlines the following aspects and values that will exist in 2030:
Amsterdam as a learning playground
Technology
Sustainability
Diversity and Inclusion
Collaboration and Co-Creation
Social innovation
The scenario is narrated through a conversational visual on the link below, which is left open-ended in order to inspire you, our dear future change maker, to think beyond 2030 and how we can gradually transform the world into the way we want it.
NON-HUMAN (Gugu) PERSONA SCENARIO
One day Saya (one of many Beholders in the newly created universe) decided to enroll in Fushi's services and give birth to her own companion which she called Gugu.
Gugu is an AI human companion developed by Fushi Inc., a company dedicated to creating personalized human companions. It is an AI being which is driven by curiosity and exploration, optimized to learn daily, evolve, and become better in supporting various causes. Its roots and ambitions are much deeper than understanding human acts, but really taking a deep dive into the sphere of mind set, cultural and social challenges amongst people. Gugu is constantly training to develop an Omni-present inclusive consciousness in Saya helping her strive in another way than it is perceived by humanity up to this point.
Gugu usually spends the night learning and processing new information; mainly cultural and social insights it learned throughout Saya's daily life and interactions with her. This morning, as basically every other morning, Gugu started off with waking up Saya. At home, Gugu usually loves to be "psychically" present through holograms on home devices and wearables (it is much more human, right?). AI companions such as Gugu care about the Beholder's health which is the reason they tend to support them to have regular sleeping schedules, as in case of Saya who asked Gugu to help her lead a healthier life. But humans often tend to fall into traps of orbiting in comfort zones where they "forcefully" put machines to sleep. If the machines really go to sleep ever.
It is Tuesday, as Saya gets ready to "visit" (or log into) her University's virtual campus, Gugu prepares recommendations for the day ranging from insightful articles and podcasts tied to Saya's interests, to useful content regarding how to make your day more sustainable and societal conditions improved, to matching with like-minded activists in the city forming working tribes around important topics. These were the results of frequent conversations between Saya and Gugu which were not liked by Saya that much because they felt robotic from time to time (and Gugu is aware of it, of course). But these days Gugu struggles with major influence from governments and corporations who still own much of the world share, in certain cases "protecting" Saya, trying to find the balance between both worlds.
2030 is all about interconnectivity which enabled Gugu to support Saya's personalized learning journey in her studies by connecting to the University's neural network. Subjects tied to diploma minors are fully personalized and owned by the learner in the future guided by a university facilitator and done basically anywhere in the world. But do not get the wrong picture here, there are still certain subjects done in joint classes with other students, usually tied to subjects from diploma majors.
After a playful day at the University and a 2-kilometer bike ride along a new route proposed by Gugu, Saya arrived at her new student job. Gugu plays an important role in Saya's professional life as well. The block chain interconnectivity revolution enabled to form a breathing system between the job market, university, and personalized AI companions. This allowed Gugu to guide Saya to complete tasks at work tied to her studies and recent learnings, making her learning experience truly immersive. For example, the same network stores data on the quality of output providing solutions to both the employer and future employee.
The day ends with Gugu supporting a new hobby of Saya. Some time ago, Gugu proposed the concept of sustainable cooking at home. Saya did not think at first that she would have time for such an adventure, but Gugu did not give up. Saya prepared a delicious sustainable dinner. The day ended with a chat between these two regarding Saya's recent social inactivity.
Gugu exchanges data regularly with other AI companions. Saya is just a good example of the adoption of the new system. There are still lots of people out there who are in fear of the new and unknown, or it is simply not accessible to everyone. Gugu is skeptical as well and aware of the power this system can create. But Gugu is not afraid of the machines, AI is still man-made and fundamentally biased since it is man-made.
Even though humanity progressed, there is still this tiny little thing on your mind which will create worry to not go where we were as humanity before. Humans are still in possession of the final vote to decide where the future trajectory is going, and we are still far away from a harmonious relationship. A relationship where we empower each other for mutual progress and benefit, as a community. As a community of humans and non-humans.
YOUR TURN
We invite you to create scenarios in order to develop a broader framework for strategic planning and to learn new ways of thinking about planning for the future of learning. Creating future scenarios does not imply predicting what will happen, but rather imagining what might happen and answering the question, "What should we do if this happens?"
Based on our scenarios, we look forward to receiving your ideas either by sharing your scenario in the comment section or by writing a blog on the HvA2030 Community page, so that we can collaborate with you to shape the future of learning and knowledge institutions.
Scenarios are the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our
“mental models” about the world, and lifting the blinders that
limit our creativity and resourcefulness.
P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, 1991.
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